The present study examined the development of phonological and reading
skills in 171 students (98 males, 73 females) from the beginning of f
irst grade (Time 1) to the end of second grade (Time 4). Based on thei
r reading and intelligence scores at the end of second grade, these st
udents were placed into nondisabled (ND), reading disabled (RD), or ga
rden-variety poor reading (GV) groups. Although each group made gains
in phonological processing, large differences were found between the N
D and RD/GV groups. The RD and GV groups performed similarly on many o
f the tasks. Consistent with the literature, it was found that intelli
gence does not differentiate between good and poor readers. The most i
mportant finding of the present study was that reader-group membership
at Time 4 could be very accurately determined from students' Time 1 s
cores. All of the children in the RD and GV groups were correctly iden
tified, and only 3 of the 148 ND children were misclassified, indicati
ng that children at risk for reading difficulties can be very accurate
ly identified very early in their academic experiences.