THE EFFECT OF PERFORMANCE ON A WORKERS CAREER - EVIDENCE FROM MINOR-LEAGUE BASEBALL

The authors analyze the promotion, demotion, and turnover of pitchers in baseball's minor leagues-a labor market for which exceptionally goo d data on performance are available-in the years 1975-88. They find th at the time between a player's assignment to one league and promotion or demotion to another (or exit from professional baseball) declined a s his performance deviated from the mean, in either a positive or nega tive direction. Also negatively associated with the time required to m ake a determination about a pitcher's ability was his age, which the a uthors use as a proxy for experience. Pitchers' ages did not, however, affect the highest league level in which they ultimately played.