MATHEMATICAL-MODELING OF MICROBIAL-GROWTH - A REVIEW

The use of mathematical modeling of microbiological behavior to predic t and evaluate food safety or shelf life is receiving considerable int erest. Researchers are attempting to use mathematical equations that i ncorporate such critical growth factors as pH, a(w) and NaCl content t o predict microbial growth and/or toxin production in order to replace traditional time-intensive challenge studies. Predictive equations ca n be divided into probabilistic, regression, Arrhenius, and square roo t models. Models vary greatly in theory and complexity. Predictive mod els are used to monitor processes ranging from temperature during dist ribution to inventory control. They have been shown to be useful in pr oduct development and shelf-life estimation when safety is not an issu e. Most models are generated by regression analysis of data obtained f rom laboratory experiments. Statistically based models, even when cons ervatively derived, are not appropriate as the only criterion for eval uating food safety.