AN END-USE ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL FOOD-REQUIREMENTS

The technique of 'end use analysis', borrowed from the energy sector, is employed to identify four sources of potential change in global foo d requirements. These include: (i) changes in global calorie requireme nts resulting from improved nutritional status and changes in physical activity levels, (ii) efficiency changes in the storage, handling, tr ansportation and consumption of food which result in changes in the gl obal level of food system efficiency, (iii) changes in the consumption of animal products, and (iv) changes to dietary structures due to inc reasing knowledge and concerns about the health impacts of alternative diets. This paper argues that, in the long run, there may be signific ant scope for altering the relationship between income and food demand , and that investments in increasing agricultural supply must be compa red to investments in reducing the growth rate of global food demand. Given the current concern about the environmental sustainability of in creasing agricultural production, reducing demand growth is one method of increasing sustainability, and is possible without sacrificing die tary quality.