USE OF DURATION MODELS FOR PREDICTING VEHICULAR DELAY AT A US CANADIAN BORDER CROSSING

Delays caused by congestion at the US/Canadian border crossing between Washington state and British Columbia have underscored the need for s ome sort of intervention. One obvious congestion-mitigation measure wo uld be to estimate delay times and then relay this information to moto rists so that they could select among alternative border crossing site s, or delay their trips. This paper applies duration models to estimat e vehicular delay and demonstrates the usefulness of such models as a basis for a fully automated motorist information system. The paper als o explores the flexibility of duration models, in providing estimates of vehicle delay, by using alternate parametric forms and assessing pr ediction accuracy.