PROBABILITY BOOTSTRAPPING - IMPROVING PREDICTION BY FITTING EXTENSIONAL MODELS TO KNOWLEDGEABLE BUT INCOHERENT PROBABILITY JUDGMENTS

Authors
OSHERSON D SHAFIR E KRANTZ DH SMITH EE
Citation
D. Osherson et al., PROBABILITY BOOTSTRAPPING - IMPROVING PREDICTION BY FITTING EXTENSIONAL MODELS TO KNOWLEDGEABLE BUT INCOHERENT PROBABILITY JUDGMENTS, Organizational behavior and human decision processes, 69(1), 1997, pp. 1-8
Citations number
13
Categorie Soggetti
Psychology, Applied",Management,"Psychology, Social
Journal title
Organizational behavior and human decision processes → ACNP
ISSN journal
07495978
Volume
69
Issue
1
Year of publication
1997
Pages
1 - 8
Database
ISI
SICI code
0749-5978(1997)69:1<1:PB-IPB>2.0.ZU;2-0
Abstract
We propose a simple method for choosing a probability distribution as an approximation to a set of incoherent probability judgments. In two different domains we demonstrate that the resulting (coherent) probabi lity estimates come closer to the observed relative frequencies than d o the original incoherent judgments. (C) 1997 Academic Press.