HOW VALID ARE EXPERTS PROGNOSES ON CHILDREN WITH LEARNING-PROBLEMS

All assessments of children contain more or less explicit predictions about the pupils' performance. In the present study the validity of pr ognoses for children with learning problems was tested. On the basis o f psychological and educational tests ten education students, ten prac ticing school psychologists, and ten directors of special schools diag nosed learning problems in four children. In addition they gave their prognoses for the pupils' development over the following 6 months in t he cognitive and the social-emotional domain. The validity of the prog noses was tested by comparing the experts' statements with the pupils' actual development. On the average the prognoses appeared very inaccu rate. The prognoses in the cognitive domain were somewhat more valid t han the prognoses in the social-emotional domain. There were no differ ences among the three groups. However, the accuracy of the prognoses v aried with the problem at hand.