ESTIMATION OF TIME-DEPENDENT ORIGIN-DESTINATION MATRICES FOR TRANSIT NETWORKS

In this paper, the estimation of time-dependent origin-destination (O- D) matrices for transit network based on observed passenger counts is given. The dynamic assignment framework is based on a schedule-based t ransit network model, which can help determine the time-dependent leas t cost paths between all O-D pairs, and for each of them the clock arr ival times at the end nodes of all observed links (if any) in the tran sit network. An entropy-based approach is then employed to estimate th e time-dependent O-D matrices based on the observed passenger counts a t those observed links in the network. An efficient sparse algorithm i s also proposed to solve the resulting mathematical programming proble m. The estimation methodology is tested in a transit network from the Mass Transit Railway (MTR) system in Hong Kong which is one of the bus iest railway systems in the world. Both cases with and without prior i nformation of the O-D matrices are considered for this network. The pr edicted matrices are then compared with the true matrices obtained fro m a sophisticated electronic fare collection system of MTR. Good agree ment between predicted and observed matrices are found. (C) 1998 Elsev ier Science Ltd.