ORDER FROM CHAOS - THE EFFECTS OF EARLY LABOR-MARKET EXPERIENCES ON ADULT LABOR-MARKET OUTCOMES

This paper examines the consequences of initial periods of ''churning' ' or ''mobility'' in the labor market, to help assess whether faster t ransitions to stable employment relationships - as envisioned by advoc ates of school-to-work programs - wouId be likely to lead to better ad ult labor market outcomes. An analysis of National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data for the years 1979-92 yields modest evidence, at best, linking early job market stability to better labor market outcomes. Th e authors find that for both genders, adult labor market outcomes (def ined as of the late 20s or early to mid-30s) are for the most part unr elated to early labor market experiences. This evidence does not suppo rt efforts to explicitly target the school-to-work transition, insofar as doing so implies changing the structure of youth labor markets so that workers form earlier and firmer attachments to employers, industr ies, or occupations.