THE EFFECTS OF TASK INFORMATION AND OUTCOME FEEDBACK ON INDIVIDUALS INSIGHT INTO THEIR DECISION-MODELS

When making business decisions, people generally receive some form of guidance. Often, this guidance might be in die form of instructions ab out which inputs to the decision are most important. Alternatively, it might be outcome feedback concerning the appropriateness of their dec isions. When people receive guidance in making difficult judgments, it is important that they do not confuse this guidance with insight into their own decision models. This study examined whether people confuse their actual decision model with task information and outcome feedbac k. Subjects predicted the likelihood that various hypothetical compani es would experience financial distress and then reported the decision; models they believed they had used. Their reported models were compare d with their actual models as estimated by a regression of the subject s' predictions on the inputs to their decisions. In a 2x2 factorial de sign, some subjects were provided with task information regarding the relative importance of each input to their decisions while others were not. Some subjects were provided with outcome feedback regarding the quality of their decisions while others were not. The subjects tended to confuse the task information and outcome feedback with their actual decision models. Implications for the results are discussed.