EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVE HOME-AWAY SEQUENCES IN A BEST-OF-7 PLAYOFF SERIES

In the NEA and NHL, the usual playoff format is a best-of-seven series where the stronger team (based on regular season performance) is give n the benefit of four games scheduled in its home building. Typical HO ME-AWAY schedules are HHAAAHH (the 2-3 format) for the NEA and HHAAHAH (the 2-2 format) for the NHL. Assuming that games are independent Ber noulli trials, we show that each team's probability of winning the ser ies is unaffected by HOME-AWAY sequencing but that the average length of a series is affected by HOME-AWAY sequencing. For instance, if one team is stronger than the other in both buildings, the 2-3 format has a higher expected number of games than does the 2-2 format. The result s follow from simple probability calculations. The sporting context ma kes this an interesting exercise for students of statistics.