APPROXIMATE IS BETTER THAN EXACT FOR INTERVAL ESTIMATION OF BINOMIAL PROPORTIONS

Citation
A. Agresti et Ba. Coull, APPROXIMATE IS BETTER THAN EXACT FOR INTERVAL ESTIMATION OF BINOMIAL PROPORTIONS, The American statistician, 52(2), 1998, pp. 119-126
Citations number
22
Categorie Soggetti
Statistic & Probability","Statistic & Probability
Journal title
ISSN journal
00031305
Volume
52
Issue
2
Year of publication
1998
Pages
119 - 126
Database
ISI
SICI code
0003-1305(1998)52:2<119:AIBTEF>2.0.ZU;2-R
Abstract
For interval estimation of a proportion, coverage probabilities tend t o be too large for ''exact'' confidence intervals based on inverting t he binomial test and too small for the interval based on inverting the Wald large-sample normal test (i.e., sample proportion +/- z-score x estimated standard error). Wilson's suggestion of inverting the relate d score test with null rather than estimated standard error yields cov erage probabilities close to nominal confidence levels, even for very small sample sizes. The 95% score interval has similar behavior as the adjusted Wald interval obtained after adding two ''successes'' and tw o ''failures'' to the sample. In elementary courses, with the score an d adjusted Wald methods it is unnecessary to provide students with awk ward sample size guidelines.