SYNTHETIC ESTIMATION OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF MENTALLY-DISABLED ADULTS FOR ALLOCATIONS TO OHIO-MENTAL-HEALTH-BOARD AREAS

Various indirect forms of evidence are provided for the accuracy of sy nthetic estimation of the distribution of severely mentally disabled ( SMD) adults across Ohio's mental health board areas. The board areas a re public mental health jurisdictions which are allocated state funds to serve the needs of SMD adults. Equitable allocation of funds to the se areas depends on accurate estimation of the distribution of SMD adu lts across the areas. The synthetic estimation method involved two ste ps. (a) ECA-based prevalences of SMD adults by demographic profiles we re obtained, (b) prevalences were applied to a board area's demographi c mix to yield the estimated SMD count for that area. The main indirec t evidence of accuracy showed that the synthetically-estimated percent ages across areas agreed closely with the actual percentages of SMD ad ults enrolled in federal programs. Statistical characteristics of vari ous percentage estimators indicated that reasonably accurate estimatio n and allocation is not difficult to attain.