INFORMATION SELECTION AND UTILIZATION IN HYPOTHESIS-TESTING - A COMPARISON OF PROCESS-TRACING AND STRUCTURAL-ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES

This paper examines the contributions of process-tracing and structura l analysis techniques to our understanding of the cognitive processes underlying hypothesis testing An experiment designed to compare and co ntrast the techniques is reported in which participants (N = 72) made diagnostic judgments by selecting information they felt was necessary from computerized information-boards (Mouselab 4.2: Johnson et al,, 19 89). This innovative methodology enabled us to explore the potential o f a multimethod approach in providing insights into how people's under standing of the diagnostic value of conditional probability informatio n in hypothesis testing deviated from the prescriptions of Bayes' theo rem. in short, the process-tracing results indicated that, as well as typically selecting information according to a strategy which did not fit the Bayesian prediction, participants generally paid most attentio n to information directly pertinent to the hypothesis or hypotheses th ey were explicitly asked to evaluate. Although the structural analysis also implied that participants' integration strategies were not stric tly Bayesian, direct comparisons between the data sources highlighted possible dangers associated with relying on each technique in isolatio n, Most significantly, by synthesizing data between techniques the val ue of adopting combined process-tracing/structural analysis approaches in decision research was demonstrated. (C) 1998 Academic Press.