CONFIRMATORY PROGRAM-EVALUATION - A METHOD FOR STRENGTHENING CAUSAL INFERENCE

This paper discusses current issues in theory-driven evaluation from t he perspective of the evaluation practice literature. Applications of theory-driven approaches are not easily found, in part, because there an few procedures for conducting them. I offer confirmatory program ev aluation as one way to use theory, in combination with quantitative an alytical techniques, to assess the effects of social and educational p rograms. In contrast to many other approaches, theory-driven evaluatio n generally emphasizes the explication and testing of a priori program theories in determining effectiveness. Confirmatory program evaluatio n is an impact assessment that examines the pattern of empirical findi ngs against several causal criteria, including temporality, size, grad ient (dosage/response), specificity, consistency, and coherence of the program-outcome relationship. A special emphasis is given to identify ing causal mechanisms or active ingredients of programs that yield eff ects. An illustration of confirmatory program evaluation is provided f or a child development intervention called the Child Parent Center Pro gram. The limitations of this method are discussed, as well as the con ditions under which it is most useful.