THE POTENTIAL FOR AGRICULTURAL TRADE AMONG EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICAN COUNTRIES

This study investigates the potential for expanding trade in grains an d cereals among the countries of Eastern and Southern Africa. In the a bsence of measures of comparative costs and disaggregated bilateral da ta, the method was to determine whether the consumption and production characteristics of the countries imply that trade Is below its potent ial. The countries demonstrate characteristics consistent with greater trade in grains and cereals than occurs. The region is nor a chronic importer of grains, except in years of severe drought. Greater intra-r egional trade in grains is implied by the significantly different stru ctures of consumption and production across countries, These differenc es suggest that greater grain self-sufficiency for each country taken separately might not be efficient, but it could be for the region as a whole. Along with the evidence for differences in consumption and pro duction patterns goes statistical support for the likelihood that the countries could absorb each other's surpluses and fill each other's sh ortages over time, (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.