Wallet Game: Probability, Likelihood, and Extended Likelihood

Citation
Yudi Pawitan et Youngjo Lee, Wallet Game: Probability, Likelihood, and Extended Likelihood, American statistician , 71(2), 2017, pp. 120-122
Journal title
ISSN journal
00031305
Volume
71
Issue
2
Year of publication
2017
Pages
120 - 122
Database
ACNP
SICI code
Abstract
We propose a likelihood explanation to the two-person wallet game, a probability-related paradox, where an obviously fair game may appear favorable to both players. Yet a small variation of the game, without changing its fairness, turns it to seem unfavorable. The extended likelihood concept seems logically necessary if we want to allow the sense of uncertainty associated with a realized but still unobserved random outcome, while at the same time avoid potential probability-related paradoxes