Issues in Risk Assessment and Analysis for the Chlorofluorocarbon Problem

The environmental risk problem posed by chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's) raises issues of both health risk assessment under uncertainty and value judgment in weighing these risks.Uncertainties arise in the assessment of the amount of ozone reduction in the stratosphere, the magnitude of human exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation, and the exposure-response relationship between UV radiation and skin-cancer incidence.Concern may be focused on the upper tail of the probability distribution for final health effect, thus highlighting the need for careful integration of empirical evidence and expert judgment in a probabilistic framework.Value judgments in CFC decision making concern valuation of effects on the quality of life, weighting of future risks in relation to current benefits, attitudes toward low-probability events, and ethical problems associated with involuntary exposures.