QUANTITATIVE MICROBIOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT - PRINCIPLES APPLIED TO DETERMINING THE COMPARATIVE RISK OF SALMONELLOSIS FROM CHICKEN PRODUCTS

Ensuring microbiological safety requires identification of realistic h azards and the means of controlling them. The risk assessment framewor k proposed by Coder Alimentarius allows the impact of raw materials an d processes to be appreciated, and the output can be used for risk man agement and communication. Mathematical models allow numerical informa tion to be processed by a computer and interpreted to give quantitativ e or comparative risk assessments. In this example, models have been p ut together according to the Coder Alimentarius principles, providing a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of salmonellosis from frozen poul try products. This model-based QRA takes into account three types of i nformation: occurrence and distribution of the agent, sensitivity of p opulations to infection (e.g., normal or susceptible), and the effect of cooking (in the factory or home) on concentration of the agent and hence risks of infection after product consumption. It only demonstrat es the impact of a single-process step (heating) and the effect of cha nges in population sensitivity, raw material quality, and cooking regi me on the final risk. The effects of growth and recontamination are no t considered. To aid risk communication, the models have been visualiz ed by means of displays and slider controls on a computer screen becau se effective communication is essential to encourage manufacturers and their product designers to assess the effect of changes in processing or materials on risk.