ARE THE OPINION POLLS READY FOR 1997

This article discusses the work conducted by opinion poll companies si nce the 1992 polls disaster. The ensuing five years have seen an exten sive debate about why the industry got it wrong, including an official enquiry set up by The Market Research Society. The author considers w hether the industry is likely to be more successful in the 1997 electi on. The paper examines how far the methods of the opinion polls have c hanged since 1992 and whether these changes are likely to be sufficien t to overcome the weaknesses identified as the cause of the problems o n that occasion. It argues that the developments which have occurred s ince 1992 have resulted in as methodologically pluralist an industry a s at any time in its (relatively short) history. The 1997 election is an important test of just how far the changes in methodology have to g o.