Tr. Stewart et al., THE IMPORTANCE OF THE TASK IN ANALYZING EXPERT JUDGMENT, Organizational behavior and human decision processes, 69(3), 1997, pp. 205-219
Citations number
95
Categorie Soggetti
Psychology, Applied",Management,"Psychology, Social
The accuracy of judgmental forecasts of temperature and precipitation
was analyzed. In contrast to the findings of many studies of expert ju
dgment and forecasting, forecasts were highly accurate and forecaster
agreement was high, Human forecasters performed better than an operati
onal forecasting model and about the same as a linear regression model
. Differences between temperature and precipitation forecasts could be
predicted from differences between the tasks. In general, differences
between tasks were much greater than differences between forecasters.
Task predictability was an excellent indicator of forecast accuracy.
The characteristics of the environment for forecasting temperature and
precipitation that contribute to accuracy include high-quality inform
ation and the availability of ''guidance'' based on a computer model,
It is concluded that an understanding of the properties of the task is
essential for understanding the accuracy of expert judgment. (C) 1997
Academic Press.