THE IMPACT OF PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE OF OUTCOME ON DISAPPOINTMENT AND ELATION

Bell's (1985) disappointment theory postulates that probability and ma gnitude of outcome affect the intensity of disappointment after undesi rable outcomes and that of elation after desirable outcomes. The influ ence of probability and magnitude of outcome on the intensity of disap pointment and elation was examined in five studies. Study 1 (within-su bjects design) showed an effect of probability on both disappointment and elation. Study 2 (between-subjects design) showed only an effect o f probability on disappointment. Study 3 also relied on a between-subj ects design, used a different set of pay-offs, and replicated the find ings of Study 2. In Study 4 both probability and magnitude of outcome were systematically varied. Results showed a large effect of probabili ty on disappointment, but only a small effect on elation. Magnitude ha d a large effect on elation, but only a small effect on disappointment . Study 5 (using a real lottery) replicated the findings of Studies 2 and 3. Overall, these results suggest that experienced disappointment is primarily determined by the probability of the (undesirable) outcom e, while elation is primarily determined by the magnitude of the (desi rable) outcome, Possible explanations for this asymmetry are proposed, and implications for disappointment theory are briefly outlined. (C) 1997 Academic Press.