CHINA PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE FOOD ECONOMY - CAN CHINA CONTINUE TO MEET THE CHALLENGES

This paper synthesizes the main findings and highlights the insights o f six articles that examine how China has managed its agricultural res ources in the past, how agriculture is performing at present, and what challenges lie ahead as the country seeks to meet the food needs of i ts growing population, It provides common threads of empirical evidenc e on China's agricultural growth, describing its interrelationships wi th institutions, development policies and environmental degradation, a nd examines the sensitivity of China's trade balances and world prices to environmental and growth outcomes, using six income growth and res ource degradation scenarios, This paper notes that, hampered by chroni c fiscal problems and restrictions that will be imposed when it joins the World Trade Organization, China can meet its food supply goals by increasing reliance on international markets, establishing stable trad ing relationships with the rest of the world, and by exploiting its ag ricultural comparative advantage, However, the most likely scenario is for China to continue producing most of its own food while gradually increasing food imports without exerting severe upward pressure on the world markets, The paper concludes that China needs to prioritize inv estments in agricultural research for new technologies raising agricul tural productivity, and mitigating rural environmental problems. (C) 1 997 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.