BAYESIAN BINOMIAL REGRESSION - PREDICTING SURVIVAL AT A TRAUMA CENTER

Standard methods for analyzing binomial regression data rely on asympt otic inferences. Bayesian methods can be performed using simple comput ations, and they apply for any sample size. We provide a relatively co mplete discussion of Bayesian inferences for binomial regression with emphasis on inferences for the probability of ''success.'' Furthermore , we illustrate diagnostic tools, perform model selection among nonnes ted models, and examine the sensitivity of the Bayesian methods.