PROSPECTS FOR SUSTAINING VIETNAM REACQUIRED RICE EXPORTER STATUS

Since 1989, Vietnam has been exporting 1-2 million tons of rice making it the third largest rice exporting country in the world, What are th e prospects for expanding, or even sustaining, Vietnam's recent re-acq uired rice exporter status? Two clear conclusions emerge from the disc ussion in this paper, Given limited opportunities for area expansion, the high cost of further irrigation infrastructure development, and th e almost complete exploitation of technological potential in the high- potential environments, it is highly unlikely that rice output in Viet nam will grow to the extent of satisfying rising domestic demands whil e at the same time leading to an expansion in exports, As for sustaini ng current export levels, the prospects are moderate to good over the long term, but are quite dependent on further policy and institutional reforms, infrastructural investments, and technological progress, The refore, rice productivity and exports can be sustained only if governm ent policy is favorable in terms of improving producer incentives, dis mantling export barriers, streamlining input and output marketing syst ems, and enhancing research and infrastructural investments. (C) 1997 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.